Patrick Rooney v Ben Smith (Wed 03 Oct 2018)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,584, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ben Smith:
11,869, level confidence: 54%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
132% better than Ben Smith.
Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
136% better than Ben Smith in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of
27,780 and Ben Smith at a level of
11,785. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +0.3% and Ben Smith changes to -0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +0.1% and for Ben Smith becomes 0%.
Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.
Given Ben Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is 0% and for Ben Smith is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 85%, Ben Smith: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 85%, Ben Smith: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
27,672, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Ben Smith:
11,882, level confidence: 73%.