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Neil Mallam v Peter Hardingham (Tue 02 Oct 2018)

Match won by Neil Mallam. Result: 9-11,7-11,11-4,13-11,11-8.

Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,692, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Peter Hardingham: 1,958, level confidence: 59%.
Peter Hardingham to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Neil Mallam.

Neil Mallam won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Mallam played 11% better than Peter Hardingham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Mallam actually played at a level of 1,916 and Peter Hardingham at a level of 1,729. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Mallam changes to +12% and Peter Hardingham changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Mallam becomes +6.1% and for Peter Hardingham becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Neil Mallam is +4.6% and for Peter Hardingham is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Mallam: 65%, Peter Hardingham: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Mallam: 58%, Peter Hardingham: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,767, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Peter Hardingham: 1,892, level confidence: 68%.