SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Oliver Harris v Julian Tomlinson (Wed 03 Oct 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 7-11,7-11,2-11.

Starting level for Oliver Harris: 10,295, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,278, level confidence: 63%.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Oliver Harris.

Julian Tomlinson won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 106% better than Oliver Harris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Tomlinson actually played at a level of 18,591 and Oliver Harris at a level of 9,014. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to +8.6% and Oliver Harris changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes +2.6% and for Oliver Harris becomes -3.4%.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson is +1.5% and for Oliver Harris is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 79%, Oliver Harris: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 69%, Oliver Harris: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Harris: 10,114, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,557, level confidence: 69%.