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Neil Mallam v Alwyn Lewis (Fri 05 Oct 2018)

Match won by Neil Mallam. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,768, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Alwyn Lewis: 1,884, level confidence: 63%.
Alwyn Lewis to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Neil Mallam.

Neil Mallam won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Mallam played 65% better than Alwyn Lewis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Mallam actually played at a level of 2,344 and Alwyn Lewis at a level of 1,421. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Mallam changes to +31% and Alwyn Lewis changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Mallam becomes +12.9% and for Alwyn Lewis becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Neil Mallam is +9.7% and for Alwyn Lewis is -8.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alwyn Lewis is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Mallam: 75%, Alwyn Lewis: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Mallam: 57%, Alwyn Lewis: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,936, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Alwyn Lewis: 1,792, level confidence: 60%.