Shahjahan Khan v Anthony Graham (Wed 26 Sep 2018)
Match won by Shahjahan Khan. Result: 11-9,6-11,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Shahjahan Khan:
20,654, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Anthony Graham:
14,910, level confidence: 69%.
Shahjahan Khan to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Anthony Graham.
Shahjahan Khan won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shahjahan Khan played
21% better than Anthony Graham in this match.
As Shahjahan Khan has played below his allowed range at 18,627, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Shahjahan Khan would normally have been playing at level 19,970 (based on typical behaviour), Anthony Graham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 4.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan changes to -2.6% and Anthony Graham changes to +4.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan becomes -1.1% and for Anthony Graham becomes +1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wakefield Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shahjahan Khan: 90%, Anthony Graham: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shahjahan Khan: 83%, Anthony Graham: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan:
20,422, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Anthony Graham:
15,167, level confidence: 77%.