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Julian Tomlinson v Chris Simpson (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-13,11-9,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,433, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 35,797, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 23% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,044 and 35,797 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 22,498, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 30,542 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -7.5% and Julian Tomlinson changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -2% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes +3.6%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is -0.9% and for Julian Tomlinson is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 79%, Julian Tomlinson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 59%, Julian Tomlinson: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,813, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,557, level confidence: 59%.