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Elliott Morris Devred v James Peach (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 16,970, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for James Peach: 13,913, level confidence: 59%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 22% better than James Peach.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 175% better than James Peach in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of 25,481 and James Peach at a level of 9,266. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +42% and James Peach changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +9% and for James Peach becomes -9.7%.

Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is +5% and for James Peach is -5.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Peach is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 78%, James Peach: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 52%, James Peach: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 17,798, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for James Peach: 13,523, level confidence: 51%.