Leo Au v Omar Abdel Meguid (Mon 08 Oct 2018)
Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-3.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
38,295, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Omar Abdel Meguid:
29,217, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Omar Abdel Meguid.
Leo Au won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played
120% better than Omar Abdel Meguid in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of
49,614 and Omar Abdel Meguid at a level of
22,552. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +25% and Omar Abdel Meguid changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +5.1% and for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 77%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 59%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leo Au:
39,941, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid:
28,261, level confidence: 67%.