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Mathieu Castagnet v Andrew Douglas (Mon 08 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-5,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 47,258, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Andrew Douglas: 21,571, level confidence: 56%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 119% better than Andrew Douglas.

Mathieu Castagnet won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 53% better than Andrew Douglas in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mathieu Castagnet was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 34,274 and 47,258 without affecting his level.

As Mathieu Castagnet has played below his allowed range at 33,645, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mathieu Castagnet would normally have been playing at level 40,246 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Douglas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to -1% and Andrew Douglas changes to +6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -0.4% and for Andrew Douglas becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 83%, Andrew Douglas: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 69%, Andrew Douglas: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 46,852, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Andrew Douglas: 22,130, level confidence: 63%.