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Declan James v Adrian Waller (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 6-11,6-11,11-8,19-17,16-14.

Starting level for Declan James: 39,228, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 34,941, level confidence: 56%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Adrian Waller.

Declan James won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 6% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 38,166 and Adrian Waller at a level of 35,914. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -1.7% and Adrian Waller changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -0.7% and for Adrian Waller becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 91%, Adrian Waller: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 89%, Adrian Waller: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 38,977, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 35,391, level confidence: 72%.