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Zahed Mohamed v Leo Au (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 12-10,7-11,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 36,718, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 40,087, level confidence: 59%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 29% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 43,550 and Leo Au at a level of 33,799. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +12% and Leo Au changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +2.9% and for Leo Au becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 92%, Leo Au: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 77%, Leo Au: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 37,724, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Leo Au: 38,764, level confidence: 65%.