Tarek Momen v Declan James (Wed 10 Oct 2018)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 5-11,11-6,11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
50,561, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Declan James:
39,047, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
29% better than Declan James.
Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
30% better than Declan James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
50,699 and Declan James at a level of
38,941. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to 0% and Declan James changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +0.1% and for Declan James becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 88%, Declan James: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 88%, Declan James: 94%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
50,600, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Declan James:
39,117, level confidence: 94%.