Vinicius Rodrigues v Scott Handley (Wed 17 Oct 2018)
Match won by Vinicius Rodrigues. Result: 9-11,11-2,11-9,12-10.
Starting level for
Vinicius Rodrigues:
16,541, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
14,816, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Vinicius Rodrigues to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Scott Handley.
Vinicius Rodrigues won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vinicius Rodrigues played
28% better than Scott Handley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vinicius Rodrigues actually played at a level of
17,718 and Scott Handley at a level of
13,832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vinicius Rodrigues changes to +6.7% and Scott Handley changes to -5.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vinicius Rodrigues becomes +2.2% and for Scott Handley becomes -2%.
Given Vinicius Rodrigues's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.
Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Vinicius Rodrigues is +1.2% and for Scott Handley is -1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vinicius Rodrigues: 82%, Scott Handley: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vinicius Rodrigues: 76%, Scott Handley: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Vinicius Rodrigues:
16,767, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Scott Handley:
14,669, level confidence: 83%.