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Charlie Cowie v Julian Tomlinson (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 8-11,11-8,3-11,3-11.

Starting level for Charlie Cowie: 14,098, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,034, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Charlie Cowie.

Julian Tomlinson won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 38% better than Charlie Cowie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Tomlinson actually played at a level of 18,196 and Charlie Cowie at a level of 13,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to +5.7% and Charlie Cowie changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes +1.9% and for Charlie Cowie becomes -2.1%.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Charlie Cowie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson is +1.1% and for Charlie Cowie is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 87%, Charlie Cowie: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 82%, Charlie Cowie: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Cowie: 13,960, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,260, level confidence: 82%.