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Mathieu Castagnet v Lucas Serme (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 12-10,5-11,11-7,12-14,11-9.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 46,168, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 35,969, level confidence: 64%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Lucas Serme.

Mathieu Castagnet won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 8% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

As Mathieu Castagnet has played below his allowed range at 41,392, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Mathieu Castagnet would normally have been playing at level 45,229 (based on typical behaviour), Lucas Serme played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to -5.3% and Lucas Serme changes to +7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -1.5% and for Lucas Serme becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 86%, Lucas Serme: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 79%, Lucas Serme: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 45,403, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 36,675, level confidence: 73%.