Elliott Morris Devred v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 22 Oct 2018)
Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 7-11,11-9,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Elliott Morris Devred:
18,249, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,526, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Elliott Morris Devred.
Elliott Morris Devred won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played
23% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of
20,357 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
16,608. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +11% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +3.1% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -2.5%.
Given Elliott Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.
Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is +1.7% and for Stuart Macgregor is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 74%, Stuart Macgregor: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 66%, Stuart Macgregor: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred:
18,607, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
18,324, level confidence: 76%.