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Julian Tomlinson v Adam Taylor (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 11-4,9-11,16-14,11-4.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,270, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Taylor: 12,227, level confidence: 70%.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Adam Taylor.

Julian Tomlinson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 31% better than Adam Taylor in this match.

In this case, Julian Tomlinson played at level 16,309 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Julian Tomlinson would normally have been playing at level 16,638 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to 0% and Adam Taylor changes to +1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes 0% and for Adam Taylor becomes +0.8%.

Given Adam Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson is 0% and for Adam Taylor is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 89%, Adam Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 86%, Adam Taylor: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,313, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Adam Taylor: 12,318, level confidence: 80%.