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James Snell v Mike Harris (Mon 22 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 6-11,11-8,6-11,11-4,9-11.

Starting level for James Snell: 13,056, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 19,330, level confidence: 41%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 48% better than James Snell.

Mike Harris won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 9% better than James Snell in this match.

As Mike Harris has played below his allowed range at 15,712, his level reduction is 10.8% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Harris would normally have been playing at level 18,448 (based on typical behaviour), James Snell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.8% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to -8.8% and James Snell changes to +9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes -2.5% and for James Snell becomes +2.9%.

Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Snell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Devon Mixed League 2018' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is -1.4% and for James Snell is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 64%, James Snell: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 55%, James Snell: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Snell: 13,262, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 19,042, level confidence: 55%.