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Nicholas Johnson v James Peach (Thu 25 Oct 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 3-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Nicholas Johnson: 6,492, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for James Peach: 14,145, level confidence: 68%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Nicholas Johnson.

James Peach won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 175% better than Nicholas Johnson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 15,891 and Nicholas Johnson at a level of 5,779. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +7.8% and Nicholas Johnson changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +2.5% and for Nicholas Johnson becomes -3.1%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nicholas Johnson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is +1.5% and for Nicholas Johnson is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 83%, Nicholas Johnson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 74%, Nicholas Johnson: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicholas Johnson: 6,346, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for James Peach: 14,329, level confidence: 74%.