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Owain Taylor v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 7-11,9-11,10-12.

Starting level for Owain Taylor: 16,603, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,955, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Owain Taylor.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 39% better than Owain Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 20,339 and Owain Taylor at a level of 14,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +9.8% and Owain Taylor changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.8% and for Owain Taylor becomes -3.4%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Owain Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +1.5% and for Owain Taylor is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 88%, Owain Taylor: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 78%, Owain Taylor: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owain Taylor: 16,332, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,275, level confidence: 78%.