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David Adamson v Neil Mallam (Thu 25 Oct 2018)

Match won by David Adamson. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for David Adamson: 1,408, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,797, level confidence: 58%.
Neil Mallam to win as he is currently playing 28% better than David Adamson.

David Adamson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Adamson played 24% better than Neil Mallam in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Adamson actually played at a level of 1,771 and Neil Mallam at a level of 1,429. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Adamson changes to +23% and Neil Mallam changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Adamson becomes +10.7% and for Neil Mallam becomes -9.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for David Adamson is +8% and for Neil Mallam is -6.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Neil Mallam is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Adamson: 75%, Neil Mallam: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Adamson: 60%, Neil Mallam: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Adamson: 1,518, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,709, level confidence: 61%.