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Nicholas Sachvie v Reuben Phillips (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Nicholas Sachvie. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Nicholas Sachvie: 20,042, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Reuben Phillips: 17,352, level confidence: 60%.
Nicholas Sachvie to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Reuben Phillips.

Nicholas Sachvie won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicholas Sachvie played 371% better than Reuben Phillips in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicholas Sachvie actually played at a level of 40,491 and Reuben Phillips at a level of 8,589. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 102% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicholas Sachvie changes to +92% and Reuben Phillips changes to -88%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicholas Sachvie becomes +16% and for Reuben Phillips becomes -16%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Boston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nicholas Sachvie is limited to +6.5% and Reuben Phillips is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicholas Sachvie: 77%, Reuben Phillips: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicholas Sachvie: 38%, Reuben Phillips: 38%.

Final level for Nicholas Sachvie: 21,343, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Reuben Phillips: 16,526, level confidence: 38%.