Nicholas Sachvie v Reuben Phillips (Wed 24 Oct 2018)
Match won by Nicholas Sachvie. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-2.
Starting level for
Nicholas Sachvie:
20,042, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Reuben Phillips:
17,352, level confidence: 60%.
Nicholas Sachvie to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Reuben Phillips.
Nicholas Sachvie won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicholas Sachvie played
371% better than Reuben Phillips in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicholas Sachvie actually played at a level of
40,491 and Reuben Phillips at a level of
8,589. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 102% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicholas Sachvie changes to +92% and Reuben Phillips changes to -88%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicholas Sachvie becomes +16% and for Reuben Phillips becomes -16%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Boston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nicholas Sachvie is limited to +6.5% and Reuben Phillips is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicholas Sachvie: 77%, Reuben Phillips: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicholas Sachvie: 38%, Reuben Phillips: 38%.
Final level for Nicholas Sachvie:
21,343, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Reuben Phillips:
16,526, level confidence: 38%.