Pete Billson v Stuart Macgregor (Tue 30 Oct 2018)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 9-11,6-11,11-8,8-11.
Starting level for
Pete Billson:
16,882, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,613, level confidence: 58%.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Pete Billson.
Stuart Macgregor won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
24% better than Pete Billson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
19,166 and Pete Billson at a level of
15,514. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +8.6% and Pete Billson changes to -7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.5% and for Pete Billson becomes -2.4%.
Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.
Given Pete Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +1.4% and for Pete Billson is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 76%, Pete Billson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 70%, Pete Billson: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Pete Billson:
16,686, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,892, level confidence: 70%.