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Harry Falconer v Andy Whipp (Tue 30 Oct 2018)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-13,11-9,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 17,100, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 17,323, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Harry Falconer.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 25% better than Andy Whipp in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 19,261 and Andy Whipp at a level of 15,380. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +13% and Andy Whipp changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +3.4% and for Andy Whipp becomes -2.9%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +1.9% and for Andy Whipp is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 79%, Andy Whipp: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 70%, Andy Whipp: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 17,449, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 17,074, level confidence: 77%.