SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Scott Handley v Jonny Machin (Wed 31 Oct 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,625, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jonny Machin: 7,339, level confidence: 58%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Jonny Machin.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 200% better than Jonny Machin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 17,944 and Jonny Machin at a level of 5,981. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +12% and Jonny Machin changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +3.4% and for Jonny Machin becomes -4.8%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jonny Machin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +2% and for Jonny Machin is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 86%, Jonny Machin: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 70%, Jonny Machin: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 14,905, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jonny Machin: 7,103, level confidence: 62%.