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Isaac Rawcliffe v Peter Creed (Thu 01 Nov 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 4-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 10,626, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,822, level confidence: 67%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 162% better than Isaac Rawcliffe.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 120% better than Isaac Rawcliffe in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,814 and 27,822 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 23,377 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Isaac Rawcliffe is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 82%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 75%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 10,610, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,780, level confidence: 75%.