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Cam Ward v Julian Tomlinson (Wed 31 Oct 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 7-11,11-9,4-11,3-11.

Starting level for Cam Ward: 6,188, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,842, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 188% better than Cam Ward.

Julian Tomlinson won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 39% better than Cam Ward in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Julian Tomlinson was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,878 and 17,842 without affecting his level.

As Julian Tomlinson has played below his allowed range at 9,224, his level reduction is 7.1% before damping. On the assumption that Julian Tomlinson would normally have been playing at level 13,719 (based on typical behaviour), Cam Ward played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to -3.8% and Cam Ward changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes -1.5% and for Cam Ward becomes +4.8%.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Cam Ward's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson is -0.8% and for Cam Ward is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 86%, Cam Ward: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 60%, Cam Ward: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cam Ward: 6,414, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,739, level confidence: 60%.