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Neil Mallam v Rob Holmes (Fri 02 Nov 2018)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 12-10,3-11,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,657, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Rob Holmes: 2,095, level confidence: 67%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Neil Mallam.

Rob Holmes won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 43% better than Neil Mallam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Holmes actually played at a level of 2,227 and Neil Mallam at a level of 1,559. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to +5.3% and Neil Mallam changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes +3.1% and for Neil Mallam becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is +2.4% and for Neil Mallam is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 82%, Neil Mallam: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 77%, Neil Mallam: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,621, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Rob Holmes: 2,141, level confidence: 77%.