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Terry Scott v Doug Chandler (Fri 02 Nov 2018)

Match won by Terry Scott. Result: 15-5,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for Terry Scott: 2,319, level confidence: 18%.
Starting level for Doug Chandler: 1,914, level confidence: 68%.
Terry Scott to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Doug Chandler.

Terry Scott won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Terry Scott played 52% better than Doug Chandler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Terry Scott actually played at a level of 2,594 and Doug Chandler at a level of 1,711. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Terry Scott changes to +10.7% and Doug Chandler changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Terry Scott becomes +4.9% and for Doug Chandler becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Terry Scott is +3.7% and for Doug Chandler is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Terry Scott: 42%, Doug Chandler: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Terry Scott: 37%, Doug Chandler: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Terry Scott: 2,401, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Doug Chandler: 1,883, level confidence: 74%.