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Julian Tomlinson v Matt Turner (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 4-11,11-4,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,628, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Matt Turner: 4,873, level confidence: 45%.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 262% better than Matt Turner.

Julian Tomlinson won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 33% better than Matt Turner in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Julian Tomlinson was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,438 and 17,628 without affecting his level.

As Julian Tomlinson has played below his allowed range at 7,384, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Julian Tomlinson would normally have been playing at level 12,196 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Turner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 37%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to -5.4% and Matt Turner changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes -1.9% and for Matt Turner becomes +6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Lancashire Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 77%, Matt Turner: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 47%, Matt Turner: 40%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,279, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Matt Turner: 5,158, level confidence: 40%.