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Julian Tomlinson v Joshua Taylor (Sun 04 Nov 2018)

Match won by Julian Tomlinson. Result: 10-12,11-5,7-11,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,140, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Joshua Taylor: 13,476, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Julian Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Joshua Taylor.

Julian Tomlinson won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Tomlinson played 17% better than Joshua Taylor in this match.

As Julian Tomlinson has played below his allowed range at 16,144, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Julian Tomlinson would normally have been playing at level 16,816 (based on typical behaviour), Joshua Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson changes to -1.9% and Joshua Taylor changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Tomlinson becomes -0.9% and for Joshua Taylor becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Lancashire Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Tomlinson: 69%, Joshua Taylor: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Tomlinson: 66%, Joshua Taylor: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,967, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Joshua Taylor: 13,550, level confidence: 91%.