Mathieu Castagnet v Youssef Soliman (Sun 28 Oct 2018)
Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-8,11-9,9-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
43,983, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
35,805, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Youssef Soliman.
Mathieu Castagnet won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played
26% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of
44,501 and Youssef Soliman at a level of
35,388. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +1.1% and Youssef Soliman changes to -0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +0.4% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -0.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 78%, Youssef Soliman: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 77%, Youssef Soliman: 89%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
44,061, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,868, level confidence: 89%.