SquashLevels calculations
Leo Au v Ben Coleman (Sun 28 Oct 2018)
Match won by Leo Au. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
38,449, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Ben Coleman:
29,469, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Ben Coleman.
Leo Au won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played
30% better than Ben Coleman in this match.
In this case, Leo Au played at level 38,429 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ben Coleman is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 77%, Ben Coleman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 77%, Ben Coleman: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leo Au:
38,484, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Ben Coleman:
29,547, level confidence: 85%.