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Scott Handley v George Stanford (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,942, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Stanford: 8,571, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 74% better than George Stanford.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 230% better than George Stanford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 20,558 and George Stanford at a level of 6,230. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +27% and George Stanford changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +6.4% and for George Stanford becomes -7.1%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given George Stanford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +3.7% and for George Stanford is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 89%, George Stanford: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 65%, George Stanford: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 15,481, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for George Stanford: 8,185, level confidence: 66%.