Mark Lewis v Doug Chandler (Tue 06 Nov 2018)
Match won by Mark Lewis. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Mark Lewis:
2,279, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Doug Chandler:
1,893, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Mark Lewis to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Doug Chandler.
Mark Lewis won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Lewis played
52% better than Doug Chandler in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Lewis actually played at a level of
2,558 and Doug Chandler at a level of
1,687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Lewis changes to +11.1% and Doug Chandler changes to -10.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Lewis becomes +5.1% and for Doug Chandler becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Mark Lewis is +3.8% and for Doug Chandler is -3.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Lewis: 83%, Doug Chandler: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Lewis: 74%, Doug Chandler: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Lewis:
2,362, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Doug Chandler:
1,852, level confidence: 76%.