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James Peach v Roshan Bharos (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-5,11-4,14-16,7-11,14-12.

Starting level for James Peach: 14,700, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 14,744, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Roshan Bharos to win as he is currently playing 0% better than James Peach.

James Peach won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 12% better than Roshan Bharos in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 15,593 and Roshan Bharos at a level of 13,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +6.1% and Roshan Bharos changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +2.1% and for Roshan Bharos becomes -1.8%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Roshan Bharos's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is +1.2% and for Roshan Bharos is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 81%, Roshan Bharos: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 77%, Roshan Bharos: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Peach: 14,854, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Roshan Bharos: 14,573, level confidence: 87%.