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Ben Burbank v Scott Handley (Tue 06 Nov 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 6-11,6-11,1-11.

Starting level for Ben Burbank: 6,202, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,904, level confidence: 68%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 140% better than Ben Burbank.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 154% better than Ben Burbank in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 15,318 and Ben Burbank at a level of 6,034. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +1.8% and Ben Burbank changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +0.8% and for Ben Burbank becomes -0.8%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ben Burbank's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +0.5% and for Ben Burbank is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 83%, Ben Burbank: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 80%, Ben Burbank: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Burbank: 6,156, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,952, level confidence: 80%.