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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Guhan Senthilkumar (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,241, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Guhan Senthilkumar: 10,242, level confidence: 41%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 234% better than Guhan Senthilkumar.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 267% better than Guhan Senthilkumar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 35,859 and Guhan Senthilkumar at a level of 9,780. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +1.6% and Guhan Senthilkumar changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +0.6% and for Guhan Senthilkumar becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 80%, Guhan Senthilkumar: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 77%, Guhan Senthilkumar: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,457, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Guhan Senthilkumar: 10,114, level confidence: 61%.