Tom J Walsh v Julian Tomlinson (Wed 07 Nov 2018)
Match won by Tom J Walsh. Result: 10-12,11-2,11-8,9-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Tom J Walsh:
23,456, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Julian Tomlinson:
16,886, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Tom J Walsh to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Julian Tomlinson.
Tom J Walsh won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom J Walsh played
18% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.
As Tom J Walsh has played below his allowed range at 20,860, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Tom J Walsh would normally have been playing at level 22,668 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 5.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom J Walsh changes to -4.2% and Julian Tomlinson changes to +5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom J Walsh becomes -1.5% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes +1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Swiss Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom J Walsh: 86%, Julian Tomlinson: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom J Walsh: 79%, Julian Tomlinson: 81%.
Final level for Tom J Walsh:
23,103, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson:
17,200, level confidence: 81%.