Nathan Lake v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Thu 08 Nov 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,710, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
34,407, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Nathan Lake.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
52% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
40,676 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of
26,823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +27% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +5.5% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -4.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 82%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 64%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
33,306, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
33,006, level confidence: 68%.