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Stuart Macgregor v Robin Gadola (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-9,11-9,20-18.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,218, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Robin Gadola: 20,280, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Robin Gadola to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 29% better than Robin Gadola in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 21,858 and Robin Gadola at a level of 16,903. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +19% and Robin Gadola changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +4.6% and for Robin Gadola becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Swiss Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 83%, Robin Gadola: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 69%, Robin Gadola: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,051, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Robin Gadola: 19,430, level confidence: 70%.