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Patrick Rooney v Viktor Byrtus (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 28,924, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Viktor Byrtus: 20,319, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Viktor Byrtus.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 175% better than Viktor Byrtus in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 40,202 and Viktor Byrtus at a level of 14,619. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +32% and Viktor Byrtus changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +6.4% and for Viktor Byrtus becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Swiss Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick Rooney is limited to +5.8% and Viktor Byrtus is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 85%, Viktor Byrtus: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 61%, Viktor Byrtus: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,469, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Viktor Byrtus: 19,374, level confidence: 62%.