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Kristian Frost Olesen v Stuart Macgregor (Fri 09 Nov 2018)

Match won by Kristian Frost Olesen. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 25,966, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,060, level confidence: 69%.
Kristian Frost Olesen to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Kristian Frost Olesen won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kristian Frost Olesen played 74% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kristian Frost Olesen actually played at a level of 29,319 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 16,880. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kristian Frost Olesen changes to +11% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kristian Frost Olesen becomes +2.8% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Swiss Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kristian Frost Olesen: 78%, Stuart Macgregor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kristian Frost Olesen: 69%, Stuart Macgregor: 74%.

Final level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 26,694, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,559, level confidence: 74%.