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Julian Tomlinson v Adrian Waller (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 6-11,6-11,2-11.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,182, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 38,214, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 136% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 39,341 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of 16,690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +2% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +0.8% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -0.9%.

Given Adrian Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adrian Waller is +0.3% and for Julian Tomlinson is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 89%, Julian Tomlinson: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 87%, Julian Tomlinson: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 17,073, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 38,287, level confidence: 87%.