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Michael Andrews v Andy Whipp (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-6,4-11,10-12,6-11.

Starting level for Michael Andrews: 11,492, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 17,027, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Michael Andrews.

Andy Whipp won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 26% better than Michael Andrews in this match.

As Andy Whipp has played below his allowed range at 14,915, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 16,248 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Andrews played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to -1.6% and Michael Andrews changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes -0.7% and for Michael Andrews becomes +1.9%.

Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael Andrews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is -0.4% and for Michael Andrews is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 85%, Michael Andrews: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 78%, Michael Andrews: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Andrews: 11,607, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 16,933, level confidence: 78%.