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James Peach v Tim Vail (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for James Peach: 14,852, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 22,076, level confidence: 65%.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 49% better than James Peach.

James Peach won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 200% better than Tim Vail in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 31,363 and Tim Vail at a level of 10,454. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 111% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 85% and 85% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +74% and Tim Vail changes to -85%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +14.4% and for Tim Vail becomes -15%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for James Peach is +8.3% and for Tim Vail is -7.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Peach is limited to +7.1% and Tim Vail is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 87%, Tim Vail: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 41%, Tim Vail: 38%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Peach: 15,883, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,088, level confidence: 38%.