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Doug Chandler v Martin Fuller (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by Doug Chandler. Result: 15-11,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Doug Chandler: 2,025, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Martin Fuller: 1,407, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Doug Chandler to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Martin Fuller.

Doug Chandler won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Chandler played 88% better than Martin Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Chandler actually played at a level of 2,311 and Martin Fuller at a level of 1,233. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Chandler changes to +12% and Martin Fuller changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Chandler becomes +5.5% and for Martin Fuller becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Doug Chandler is +4.1% and for Martin Fuller is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Chandler: 77%, Martin Fuller: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Chandler: 68%, Martin Fuller: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Chandler: 2,105, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Martin Fuller: 1,377, level confidence: 77%.