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Scott Handley v Jason Varrie (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 15,624, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jason Varrie: 7,587, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 106% better than Jason Varrie.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 136% better than Jason Varrie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 16,716 and Jason Varrie at a level of 7,092. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +4.8% and Jason Varrie changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +1.8% and for Jason Varrie becomes -1.8%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jason Varrie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +1% and for Jason Varrie is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 80%, Jason Varrie: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 75%, Jason Varrie: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 15,758, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Jason Varrie: 7,485, level confidence: 85%.