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Patrick Rooney v Omar Elkattan (Sun 11 Nov 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-7,13-11,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 30,668, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Omar Elkattan: 14,583, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Omar Elkattan.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 26% better than Omar Elkattan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,828 and 30,668 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 20,495, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 26,459 (based on typical behaviour), Omar Elkattan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -7.7% and Omar Elkattan changes to +9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -2.1% and for Omar Elkattan becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Arena Uster Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 73%, Omar Elkattan: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 56%, Omar Elkattan: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,423, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Omar Elkattan: 15,032, level confidence: 67%.