Declan James v Ahsan Ayaz (Sat 03 Nov 2018)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-8.
Starting level for
Declan James:
41,901, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ahsan Ayaz:
19,858, level confidence: 29%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
111% better than Ahsan Ayaz.
Declan James won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
65% better than Ahsan Ayaz in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,124 and 41,901 without affecting his level.
In this case, Declan James played at level 34,399 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 36,113 (based on typical behaviour), Ahsan Ayaz played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to 0% and Ahsan Ayaz changes to +3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes 0% and for Ahsan Ayaz becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Balochistan International League' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 89%, Ahsan Ayaz: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 78%, Ahsan Ayaz: 48%.
Final level for Declan James:
41,901, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ahsan Ayaz:
20,132, level confidence: 48%.